تأثير السياسة النقدية على سوق الخرطوم لألوراق المالية باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الزمني الموزع ARDL في الفترة من (02:2020-03:2007م)
الكلمات المفتاحية:
Monetary Supply, financial market, Autoregressive, Distributed Lag.الملخص
The study aimed to analyze the impact of monetary policy on the performance of the Khartoum
Stock Exchange during. the study period 02:2020-03:2007 ,using the Autoregressive Distributed
Lag (ARDL) model. and to examine the nature of the relationship between monetary policy
instruments and the financial in Sudan. The study relied on monthly data for the variables of money supply. Exchange rate, and the Khartoum Stock index. unit root tests were conducted to
examine the stationary of the variables. The ARDL model was then estimated, and the optimal
lag lengths were selected using the BIC and AIC criteria. The Bounds test was applied to assess
cointegration, followed by the estimation of both short-run and long-run relationships, and the
extraction of the error correction term (ECM) using the error correction model. The results of
the study revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the study
variables. The findings showed that money supply has a positive and statistically significant
effect on financial market performance.in the short run, the results indicated dynamic effects of
the independent variables. Furthermore, the error correction model confirmed a relatively rapid
adjustment of the system back to equilibrium after any short-term disequilibrium. The study
recommends the need for effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in addition
to developing financial markets and improving the efficiency of the financial market.
