مستقبل السودان ومنطقة القرن الإفريقي في ظل استراتيجيات التنافس الدول2011-2025م

الملخص

This study aimed to examine the future of Sudan and the Horn of Africa under the dynamics of
international competition strategies through an integrated analytical approach combining theoretical
interpretation, empirical analysis, and strategic foresight. The study is grounded in the central hypothesis
that the fate of states located in geopolitically contested regions is not determined solely by their internal
capacities, but rather by the complex interaction between the structure of the international system, the
strategies of major powers, and the level of domestic state cohesion. This issue is particularly significant
in the case of Sudan and the Horn of Africa due to their strategic geographic position linking Africa, the
Middle East, and the Red Sea, as well as their abundance of natural resources and vital global trade
routes .Methodologically, the study employs a multi-method design integrating structural analysis of the
international system, comparative analysis, scenario building, quantitative indicators, and political
discourse analysis. Findings indicate that the region represents one of the world’s most prominent
arenas of low-intensity international competition, where major powers rely on economic, diplomatic, and
indirect military tools to expand influence without triggering direct confrontation. The study also finds that
ongoing internal conflict in Sudan increases the likelihood of external intervention and fragmentation
risks; however, recent shifts in international strategies toward preserving regional stability reduce the
probability of state partition compared with earlier historical periods.The paper concludes that the future
trajectory of Sudan and the wider region depends on a three-dimensional equation involving domestic
cohesion, international competition patterns, and regional balance structures. It recommends adopting
national and regional policies focused on managing international competition rather than reacting to it,
strengthening state institutions, and transforming geopolitical location from a source of conflict into a
driver of development.